ABSTRACT. The first order Markov Chain is used to predict the degradation of three types of pavements (rigid, semi-rigid, and mix) utilizing database in the five departments in the West of France. The assessment of uncertainty in the Markov chain evolution is presented through studying the trend of mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation for the very good condition transition probabilities using different time steps. The results show that the coefficient of variation of the transition probability for rigid pavements is independent of the time step . For semi-rigid and mix pavements, the standard deviation of the transition probability was constant with time step that leads to provide uncertainty modelling of transition probabilities that will change the maintenance strategy.

Conference Title

jfms2016 : Journées Fiabilité des Matériaux et des Structures - 2016

Conference Country

France

Conference Date

March 31, 2016 - April 1, 2016

Conference Sponsor

Universite de Lorraine and Mines Nancy ARTEM

Additional Info

Conference Website