The development of pavement performance models is an important step in the prediction the future conditions of pavement sections, and, accordingly,in identifying the right road rehabilitation and maintenance measure in the right time for the right section. The first order Markov chain probabilistic model is used to predict the degradation of flexible pavement in Palestine. A pilot study is conducted on part of the road network in Nablus City. Visual road condition assessment is performed, and the Pavement Condition Index (PCI) is used in rating pavement sectionsby dividing the each of roads studies at sections of 100 m length. The estimated Markov model shows that the performance of the pavement sections can be predicted up to 8 years which is compatible with the preventive maintenance strategy. The proposed pavement performance model is usually one of the major components of any Pavement Management System (PMS), and consequently, it is necessary to adopt a systematic method in Palestine for defining maintenance priorties. Moreover, the Local Governmental Units are urged to use the limited allocated budgets specified for pavement maintenance in a cost-effective manner by applying appropriate and timely maintenance actions such as crack sealing, surface patching, micro-surfacing, milling and overlay, etc.
Keywords:Pavement performance model, first order Markov chain,pavement condition index, preventive maintenance strategy, Palestine.