Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No. 50 March 2015

Publication Type
Original research
Authors

Results of Palestinian Public Opinion Poll

No. 50

26-28 March 2015

Background

After the Palestinian Authority (PA) joined the International Criminal Court, Israel has impounded Palestinian tax revenues making the PA unable to pay the full salaries of its employees.

At the last meeting of the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organization, the Council gave a recommendation to the PA to cease security coordination with Israel. The PA also called on Palestinian citizens to boycott Israeli goods.

In the recent Israeli elections, Netanyahu and his Likud party won the election and he is expected to form the next Israeli government. Netanyahu had announced during his election campaign that he did not support a solution based on the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel. On the other hand, the White House announced the necessity of ending the occupation which has been going on for about fifty years.

The hesitation of donor countries to provide the funds they promised for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, led to a lack of progress in the reconstruction process.

After the agreement between Fatah and Hamas to end the Palestinian division, nothing has been implemented of the agreement other than the formation of a unity government.

 

The Results

Following are the results of the Palestinian Public Opinion Poll no. 50 conducted by the Center for Opinion Polls and Survey Studies at An-Najah National University during the period from 26-28 March 2015. The University sponsors all polls conducted by its Center.

This poll undertakes the Palestinian public opinion in the decision of the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organization to cease security coordination with Israel, the results of the last Israeli elections, Netanyahu’s declarations during his election campaign, the Palestinian campaign to boycott Israeli goods, the  possibility of conducting presidential, legislative, municipality and local council elections in addition to the political affiliations of Palestinian people.

The sample included 1360 persons whose age group is 18 and above and who have the right to vote. The enclosed questionnaire was distributed on 860 persons from the West Bank and 500 persons from the Gaza Strip. The sample was drawn randomly and the margin of error is about ±3%; still 2.4% of the members of the sample refused to answer the questionnaire.

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The opinions represented in the results reflect those of the study; they do not, by any means, represent the opinion of An-Najah National University.

 

The General Results:

  • 59% of respondents supported the decision of the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organization to cease security coordination between the PA and Israel.
  • 26.6% of respondents believed that the PA will implement the decision of the Central Council of the Palestine Liberation Organization to cease security coordination between the PA and Israel.
  • 56.7% of respondents supported ceasing security coordination between the PA and Israel
  • After Netanyahu and the Likud victory in the recent Israeli elections, 53.2% of respondents, expected a return to the negotiating table
  • After Netanyahu's declaration during the recent Israeli elections that he did not support a solution based on the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, 36.8% of respondents supported a return to the negotiating table, while 56.3% rejected it
  • 48.8% of respondents expected the United States to pressure Israel to return to the negotiating table and accept the two-state solution.
  • After Netanyahu declared his opposition to the two-state solution, 28.7% of respondents believed that the United States would recognize an independent Palestinian state on the 1967 borders if such an appeal is submitted to the Security Council.
  • 29.2% of respondents expressed optimism about reaching a peace agreement between the PA and Israel while 65% expressed pessimism about it.
  • Among the steps that the respondents supported after Netanyahu's rejection of the two-state solution and the halting of the peace process are:

     - 72.7% Submit a petition to the UN to recognize a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders.

     - 38.8% start a new armed intifada (uprising) and confrontations with the Israelis.

     - 56.6% start nonviolent and unarmed popular resistance

     - 22.7% call for a one state solution – a state for both Israelis and Palestinians

     - 32.2% dissolve of the PA.

     - 73.5% recourse to the International Criminal Court

  • 30.7% of respondents saw the PA as the body that can best oversee the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip, 20.5% saw that it is Hamas, 15.7% saw that it is the Arab League, and 21.9% saw that it is the United Nations.
  • 62.1% of respondents believed that in the near future a new war will break out between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
  • 85% of respondents saw that Fatah and Hamas must speed up the implementation of the national reconciliation after the victory of Netanyahu in the last elections and his declarations regarding the establishment of a Palestinian State.

 

  • 52% of respondents said that they are optimistic about the implementation of the reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas in the near future while 43.7% said they are pessimistic
  • 16.5% of respondents believed that the responsible party for the lack of implementation of the national reconciliation agreement is Hamas, 13.1% said it is Fatah, and 67.1% said it is some persons in Fatah and Hamas.
  • 38.7% believed that Egypt will open the Rafah Crossing permanently if the presidential guard runs the crossing, 11.7% believed Egypt will open it even if the situation remains as it is now, and 36.9% believed that Egypt will not fully open it under all circumstances.
  • 65.1% of respondents believed that Israel will release withheld tax revenues to the PA.
  • 63.9% of respondents believed that the United States and the European Union will put pressure on Israel to release Palestinian tax revenues after the recent Israeli elections.
  • 40.9% of respondents predicted the collapse of the PA if Israel does not release withheld tax revenues.
  • 53.5% of respondents believed that the Arab countries will fulfill their financial obligations to the PA if Israel continues withholding Palestinian tax revenues.
  • In case Israel does not release withheld Palestinian tax revenues 34.5% of respondents predicted that the PA will pay the  salaries by resorting to the Arab countries to support them financially, 16.1% predicted resorting to the United States and the European Union for financial support, 14.9% predicted the PA to borrow from banks, and 19.2% predicted the PA to reduce the number of its employees and 13.5% predicted the PA to reduce employees' salaries.
  • 41.3% of respondents believed in the possibility of Daish’s (Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant) infiltration to Palestine.
  • 11% of respondents believed that the rise of Daish will have a positive impact on the Palestinian cause; 77.1% believed that it will have a negative impact.
  • 42% of respondents believed that the international coalition against Daish will succeed in defeating it.
  • 74.6% of respondents supported boycotting Israeli goods and products.
  • 53.7% of respondents expected the success and endurance of the Palestinian reconciliation; 40.6% expected its failure. 
  • 10.7% of the respondents said that they buy Israeli products in all cases, 51.8% said they buy Palestinian products in all cases, and 33.1% said they buy according to the quality of the item regardless of its origin.
  • 70.2% of respondents assessed the performance of the National Unity Government as good.
  • 71.9% of respondents assessed the performance of the Palestinian Presidency as good.

 

  • 42.9% of respondents expected that if elections are conducted in the present time in the Palestinian Territories, they will be fair.
  • 77% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming presidential elections. From among those who said they will participate, 35.4% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidate; 14.2% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidate.
  • 77.6% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming legislative elections. From among those who said they will participate, 35.3% said that they will give their votes to Fateh's candidates; 14.8% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates.
  • If PLC elections are to be conducted, 39% of respondents expected the winning of Fateh movement; 18.6% expected the winning of Hamas.
  • 79.8% of respondents said that they will participate in the coming municipality and local council elections. From among those who said they will participate, 28.3% said that they will give their votes to Fateh’s candidates, 14% said they will give their votes to Hamas' candidates and 12.1% said they will give their votes to the representative of their family or clan.
  • In case PLC elections will be conducted, 30.1% of respondents preferred conducting elections on the basis of electoral lists; 30.5% preferred conducting them on the basis of persons.
  • 27.8% of respondents preferred conducting local council and municipality elections on the basis of electoral lists; 37.2% preferred conducting them on the basis of persons.
  • 30.5% of respondents said that the current political, security and economic circumstances compel them to desire emigrating.
  • 49.1% of respondents expressed fear for their lives under the present circumstances.
  • 64.9% of respondents said that they are pessimistic of the general Palestinian situation at this stage.
  • 74.6% of respondents said that they neither feel safe for themselves nor for their families and properties under the current circumstances.
  • As for political affiliation, respondents gave the following results:

People’s Party

1.0%

Democratic Front

1.0%

Islamic Jihad

1.8%

Fateh

32.3%

Hamas

14.2%

Fida

0.2%

Popular Front

2.6%

Palestinian National Initiative

1.3%

I am an independent nationalist

6.9%

I am an independent Islamist

3.3%

None of the above

34.2%

Others

1.2%

 
Title
Opinion Polls and Survey Studies Center
Publisher
An-Najah National University
Publisher Country
Palestine
Publication Type
Both (Printed and Online)
Volume
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Year
2015
Pages
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