Climate change is significantly impacting water resources, especially in arid regions. This study evaluates its effects on groundwater in the Al-Badan sub-catchment, Palestine, by analyzing hydroclimatic data from 1990 to 2020 and the future predicted climate change scenarios. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, a significant annual decline in annual precipitation of 125 mm and a temperature increase of 1.84 ◦C were observed, resulting in a spring discharge reduction of 1.2 MCM. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that a 10% increase in precipitation correlates with a 5% discharge increase, while a 1 ◦C rise in temperature results in a 2.3% discharge decrease. Future scenarios indicate significant changes: for 2040–2060, RCP2.6 forecasts average precipitation of 334.5 mm with temperatures at 18.5 ◦C, resulting in spring discharge of about 4.6 MCM. In contrast, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 predict reductions in precipitation to 307.2 mm and 311.2 mm, respectively, with temperatures rising to 18.9 ◦C and 19.3 ◦C, leading to discharge declines to 4.2 MCM and 4.0 MCM. For 2080–2100, RCP2.6 anticipates 335.8 mm of precipitation and temperatures rising to 19.5 ◦C, resulting in average discharge of 4.5 MCM. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 predict further declines in precipitation and discharge, underscoring the need for effective water management strategies.

Title

Hydrology

Publisher

MDPI

Publisher Country

Switzerland

Indexing

Scopus

Impact Factor

3.0

Publication Type

Online only

Volume

11

Year

2024

Pages

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