The symmetric and asymmetric effect of foreign currency reserves and money supply on inflation in The Gambia: a linear and nonlinear ARDL perspective
Publication Type
Original research
Authors

This paper investigated the symmetric and asymmetric impact of international reserves (FCR) and money supply (M2) on inflation in The Gambia. The paper employed the Nonlinear-ARDL (NARDL) for the asymmetric and the ARDL for the symmetric effect, using monthly data (2005M12019M12). The NARDL revealed that a positive shock in foreign reserves is detrimental to inflation, while a negative shock promotes price stability. Similarly, an increase in money supply triggers price instability, while a decline in M2 was found to have a neutral effect. The ARDL results showed that FCR positively affects inflation in the long term but negatively in the short run. However, M2 has a positive relationship with inflation both in the short and long run. The findings indicate that policymakers in The Gambia are faced with a trade-off of either accumulating reserves to protect the economy against external shocks or maintaining price stability.

Journal
Title
المجلة الأفروآسيوية للتمويل والمحاسبة
Publisher
ماليزيا
Publisher Country
Malaysia
Indexing
Scopus
Impact Factor
2.0
Publication Type
Online only
Volume
10
Year
2023
Pages
20