ABSTRACT. The first order Markov Chain is used to predict the degradation of three types of pavements (rigid, semi-rigid, and mix) utilizing database in the five departments in the West of France. The assessment of uncertainty in the Markov chain evolution is presented through studying the trend of mean, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation for the very good condition transition probabilities using different time steps. The results show that the coefficient of variation of the transition probability for rigid pavements is independent of the time step . For semi-rigid and mix pavements, the standard deviation of the transition probability was constant with time step that leads to provide uncertainty modelling of transition probabilities that will change the maintenance strategy.

عنوان المؤتمر

jfms2016 : Journées Fiabilité des Matériaux et des Structures - 2016

دولة المؤتمر

فرنسا

تاريخ المؤتمر

31 مارس، 2016 - 1 إبريل، 2016

راعي المؤتمر

Universite de Lorraine and Mines Nancy ARTEM

معلومات إضافية

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