M. Haas¹, J. Al-Dabbeek², M. Pittore¹

Within the framework of seismic risk management, the necessary step of a seismic risk assessment requires to model hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The derivation of these models usually requires to invest a lot of resources and time. The natural component of a time-invariant probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, once thoroughly estimated, should not change with time, at least theoretically, only the anthropogenic/induced component of the hazard might change depending on a change in human behavior. Nevertheless, the hazard component is probably the component which is the most stable in time of the three risk components. If we consider building deterioration and renewal due to aging, the history of seismic overloads and eventual repairs, vulnerability models are valid as long as the building code is applied and not changing. The exposure model, even for relatively small cities, is usually outdated the day it is composed. Thus, exposure models are deviating very fast from reality and need to be updated quite frequently in order to keep an adeqaute risk model. In this presentation we discuss the fast and simple method of remote rapid visual screening (RRVS) and how this technique can form an integral part of a continuous exposure model updating. In the presentation we will show insights from recent surveys carried out in the Dead Sea region. Furthermore, we will discuss the influence of insufficient consideration of uncertainties in the exposure and vulnerability components, their effect on seismic risk estimates and potentially imperfect decisions resulting from a wrong interpretation of the risk estimates.

¹  Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

²  An-Najah National University, Nablus, Palestine

عنوان المؤتمر

the 35th General Assembly of the European Seismological Commission

دولة المؤتمر

إيطاليا

تاريخ المؤتمر

4 سبتمبر، 2016 - 10 سبتمبر، 2016

راعي المؤتمر

National Institute of Oceanography and Experimental Geophysics